THE BURNED OVER DISTRICT

Little Marco Rubio has had success being the one that the Republican establishment is pinning their hopes to stop Donald Trump on. Sadly for those folks, Marco Rubio holds no attraction for the actual voters.

Senator Marco Rubio has persuaded wealthy donors, Republican Party elders and his colleagues in Congress that he represents their best chance to overtake the seemingly invincible force that is Donald J. Trump.

He just can’t seem to convince the voters.

His distant second-place finish in Nevada on Tuesday night — 22 points behind Mr. Trump and just 2.5 ahead of Senator Ted Cruz — highlights how precarious his path forward is becoming and the profound difficulty Mr. Rubio faces as the candidate of the party’s pragmatic mainstream in a year of voter anger and rejection.

Mr. Rubio’s time — and opportunities for victory — are quickly running out, according to even his own supporters, who are offering increasingly candid assessments of his chances.

“It’s not going to be easy for Marco Rubio to do it.” said Representative Peter T. King of New York, who endorsed Mr. Rubio on Tuesday. “There is no doubt that right now Trump is the favorite.”

With four states having voted, Mr. Rubio has not won a single contest or managed to commandingly defeat Mr. Cruz, despite his formidable advantages. In South Carolina he campaigned with a popular governor who had endorsed him. In Nevada, he constantly reminded voters of the six years his family had lived in Las Vegas.

Even those who have sketched out possible paths for Mr. Rubio to win the nomination acknowledge that they are quirky and slender, dependent on forces mostly outside of his control.

And it is only going to get trickier. Mr. Rubio faces inhospitable territory next week in the Super Tuesday contests — states like Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Oklahoma, where Mr. Trump could again eclipse him. What could be worse yet for Mr. Rubio is these are also states where Mr. Cruz is poised to do well.

Mr. Rubio, aides said, needs Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio to quit the campaign — which the Ohio governor has shown little inclination to do. He needs almost all the supporters of both Mr. Kasich and Jeb Bush, who dropped out on Saturday, to switch their allegiance to him.

And Mr. Rubio’s entire strategy could be in mortal danger if he fails to win Florida or Ohio, the two delegate-rich, winner-take-all primaries scheduled for March 15. Mr. Trump’s popularity in Florida and Mr. Kasich’s home-state advantage in Ohio could put both states out of his reach.

You don't need tea leaves to see Marco bears a close resemblance to the proverbial snowball in Hell. But he is everything the establishment wants, just not what the voters are looking for.