THE BURNED OVER DISTRICT

Not that anybody really attaches any value to his promises anymore, but Mitch "The Old Turtle" McConnell did promise no more shutdowns. The trouble is his caucus now includes a significant number of stark raving loonies who will do anything to get their way, modern day Bolsheviks you might say.

“Let me make it clear: There will be no government shutdowns and no default on the national debt,” McConnell said in a valedictory news conference in Louisville.

Less than two weeks later, that pledge is facing its first big test. A series of deadlines will force the incoming Senate majority leader to either find a way to keep his word or else get dragged into the same cycle of showdowns that has yielded few conservative victories and a lot of public anger.

Rather than starting the new year with a clean slate, McConnell is increasingly likely to begin by dealing with a pile of leftover government funding bills. McConnell and House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) hoped that those spending bills could be finished by mid-December and provide funding for the rest of 2015, enabling the newly emboldened Republican majorities on both sides of the Capitol to challenge Obama on a host of issues.

But McConnell could be tripped up by the same conservative forces that have undercut Boehner since he became speaker in 2011.

The issue this time is Obama’s expected executive action to overhaul the nation’s immigration system. Obama is likely to allow millions of illegal immigrants to remain in the country without fear of deportation — a move opponents refer to as “executive amnesty” — along with other changes.

Staunch conservatives, led by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), the incoming chairman of the Budget Committee, have urged McConnell and Boehner to fight back by allowing only a short-term budget bill that would keep government agencies open until early next year.

These conservatives believe that once Republicans hold both chambers of Congress next year, they can force Obama to accept a budget bill that would prohibit him from implementing his executive order on immigration. Some Republicans, like Sessions, have said every option should be on the table, including a shutdown of the government over the issue.

The path McConnell takes between confronting Obama on immigration while keeping the federal government open could go a long way toward determining how he will serve as majority leader.

If McConnell can find a way forward, he could establish a foundation from which House and Senate Republicans can unite around conservative ideas without further damaging their party’s image.

If he blunders, however, the days of brinkmanship could return with a vengeance, and the government could once again be shut down. That could provide a devastating blow to Republicans, hurting their chance to win back the White House and hold on to their relatively slim Senate majority in 2016.

Can Mitch keep control of his Bolshie crew now that they no longer see a need for restraint? Time will tell.