Monday, January 28, 2013
What is ahead for Shitholeistan?
Predicting the future is a mug's game. Still one can always follow developing trends and draw them out. With the upcoming withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan lots of people are doing just that, many because their future depends on it. Broadly speaking there lies ahead one certainty and three possibilities.
Only one thing is certain in 2014: it will be a year of American military defeat. For more than a decade, U.S. forces have fought many types of wars in Afghanistan, from a low-footprint invasion, to multiple surges, to a flirtation with Vietnam-style counterinsurgency, to a ramped-up, gloves-off air war. And yet, despite all the experiments in styles of war-making, the American military and its coalition partners have ended up in the same place: stalemate, which in a battle with guerrillas means defeat. For years, a modest-sized, generally unpopular, ragtag set of insurgents has fought the planet’s most heavily armed, technologically advanced military to a standstill, leaving the country shaken and its citizens anxiously imagining the outcome of unpalatable scenarios.Helluva war Georgie got us into. Following this, the three possibilities for the Afghans are compromise, conflict and collapse. Of the three, the first, compromise is one that hasn't been seen there in a long time which leaves the other two, likely working together as the most likely. And so, once again, only the weaponry of Afghanistan emerges from the Dark Ages. Everything else remains the same.
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