Saturday, February 20, 2010
Looking for a job? Ready for the long haul?
With the vast number of people unemployed, over 15 Million, and the need for about 100,000 new jobs a month just to meet the new workers, economists expect the lower half of the American work force to be shit out of luck for a long time.
Some labor experts note that severe economic downturns are generally followed by powerful expansions, suggesting that aggressive hiring will soon resume. But doubts remain about whether such hiring can last long enough to absorb anywhere close to the millions of unemployed.With the economy showing no demand, to the point that Krugman is worried about deflation, many people will be running through their savings and their safety net long before any kind of employment is available. This begs the question, where will the new demand come from? Or will we be the New Japan, except that we don't have a comprehensive safety net anymore like most civilized countries do. Maybe, what with the size of Wall St bonuses (bonae?), we will see the rise of a new servant class.
Some labor experts say the basic functioning of the American economy has changed in ways that make jobs scarce — particularly for older, less-educated people like Ms. Eisen, who has only a high school diploma.
Large companies are increasingly owned by institutional investors who crave swift profits, a feat often achieved by cutting payroll. The declining influence of unions has made it easier for employers to shift work to part-time and temporary employees. Factory work and even white-collar jobs have moved in recent years to low-cost countries in Asia and Latin America. Automation has helped manufacturing cut 5.6 million jobs since 2000 — the sort of jobs that once provided lower-skilled workers with middle-class paychecks.
“American business is about maximizing shareholder value,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at the research firm Decision Economics. “You basically don’t want workers. You hire less, and you try to find capital equipment to replace them.”
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