Saturday, August 18, 2007

Seperating a rock from a hard place

This report in the NY Times shows in a microcosm what the US is doing in the macrocosm of Iraq, standing between opposing parties who just want to go at each other. In Falluja, the Marines are able to keep the warring parties apart, but only because they are there.
Security has improved enough that they are planning to largely withdraw from the city by next spring. But their plan hinges on the performance of the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government, which has failed to provide the Falluja police with even the most routine supplies, Marine officers say.

The improved security in Falluja, neighboring Ramadi and other areas in Anbar Province, once the most violent area in Iraq and the heart of the Sunni Arab insurgency, is often touted as a success story, a possible model for the rest of Iraq. But interviews with marines and Iraqi officials in Falluja suggest that the recent relative calm here is fragile and that the same sectarian rivalries that have divided the Iraqi government could undermine security as soon as the Marines leave.

Some rank-and-file marines question how security forces here would fare on their own, especially when the vehicle ban is lifted.

If Falluja were left unsupervised too soon, “there is a good chance we would lose everything we have gained,” said Sgt. Chris Turpin, an intelligence analyst with a military training team here.
The Marines are just the lid on a slow boiling pot, the longer they stay the greater the boil over when they leave.

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