THE BURNED OVER DISTRICT

And the latest polls show the effect it is having on the House campaigns, none of it good for the Coverup Queens aka the Republicans.

At least five more Republican Congressional seats are now in serious contention, analysts said Friday, an unwelcome development for Republicans as they begin to confront a political environment further darkened for them by the Congressional page scandal.

The fury over sexually charged messages sent to male teenage pages by Representative Mark Foley of Florida is undercutting Republican support among elderly voters, suburbanites and women, analysts from both parties said.

More immediately — and more alarmingly for Republican strategists who have looked to the party’s powerful voter turnout operation to save the party this year — there are signs that the furor is sapping the enthusiasm of a group essential to Republican victories in 2002 and 2004: religious conservatives.

Even better, the MSM seems to have begun to notice the snow job they were getting from the Republicans.

Republicans and their allies, including conservative talk radio hosts, have responded by rallying around Mr. Hastert and blaming Democrats and the news media for the frenzy.

Talk radio hosts, working off a list of talking points distributed by Republican Party officials

Just like they have been doing for the last 20 years, nice of you to notice now.

Still it has all caused a major shift in electoral dynamics.

Democrats need to capture 15 House seats to take control of Congress; until the last week or two, about 40 Republican seats had been judged in play, of which 20 had been considered highly competitive. But analysts said at least five more Republican seats, and as many as eight, that had once been considered relative long shots for Democrats had now swung firmly into play.

At least two of those seats are directly related to the Foley scandal. One is held by Mr. Reynolds, who as chairman of the House Republican campaign committee had entered this election cycle as a prohibitive favorite for re-election. Republicans in Florida do not plan to spend any money to defend the seat once held by Mr. Foley, effectively conceding it to the Democratic challenger, Tim Mahoney, who, not taking any chances, is running advertisements in which he pledges to return “moral values” to Congress.

Music to my ears. And another straw was added today with the resignation of Susan Ralston.They usually resign just before the law closes in.