THE BURNED OVER DISTRICT

Both the NY Times and the Washington Post have news stories on the increased vulnerabilities of Republican House seats in the upcoming election.

Some veterans of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress see worrisome parallels between then and now, in the way once-safe districts are turning into potential problems. Incumbents' poll numbers have softened. Margins against their Democratic opponents have narrowed. Republican voters appear disenchanted. The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts.

The changes don't guarantee a Democratic takeover by any means, but they are creating an increasingly asymmetrical battlefield for the fall elections: The number of vulnerable Democratic districts has remained relatively constant while the number of potentially competitive Republican districts continues to climb.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including Drake's, on his list of competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts, and Drake's wasn't on the list. "That's a pretty significant increase," he said. "The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long."

And the Times points out some factors that worry the GOP.

Of particular concern for Republicans is that many of the party's most loyal supporters — who are crucial to the outcome in midterm elections, when turnout is typically low — seem discouraged and prone to saying home, according to several recent polls. At the same time, Democratic voters are described by officials in both parties as being as energized as they have been in recent memory.

Mr. Kohut of the Pew Research Center said that 29 percent of Americans in his most recent poll said they would vote against their own member of Congress. That is the highest percentage since 1994, when Republicans swept Democrats out of power. The finding, Mr. Kohut suggested, should give pause to Republicans who argue that while most Americans have an unfavorable view of Congress, they approve the performance of their own member of Congress.

Thanks to Our Dear Embattled Leader and his evil minions the Republican Party is in Americas crosshairs and on November 6 we must pull the trigger.