THE BURNED OVER DISTRICT

Actually just the latest battle in a long standing fight between Florida and Mexico over who grows your favorite rock hard, tasteless tomatoes. Before jumping to the side of Florida, consider what the results may have on California and Washington agriculture.

Florida and Mexico are having a food fight over tomatoes and other fresh produce. Will farmers in California and Washington get caught in the crossfire?

That’s one question that swirls around the final negotiations between the Trump administration and Mexico on a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement. Growers of tomatoes, strawberries and peppers in Florida and the Southeast say they’ve been hammered by cheap imports of these crops from Mexico, particularly during winter months. They’ve lobbied the Trump administration to make it easier for them to bring “anti-dumping” and “countervailing duty” cases against Mexico in an updated NAFTA agreement.

But growers on the West Coast fear such a provision would prompt Mexico to retaliate, making it harder for them to sell south of the border. Mexico is the United States’ No. 1 market for apples, pears and sweet cherries. Washington state is the nation’s No. 1 producer of all three of these fruits. California is also a major producer, and the nation’s No. 1 cultivator of tomatoes.

“There’s not a consensus view among growers in the U.S. on this issue,” said Michael C. Camuñez, chief executive of Monarch Global Strategies and a former assistant Commerce secretary. If Florida and Georgia growers were allowed to go after Mexico, he said, “it would open the door toward retaliation against other products from the United States.”

U.S. and Mexican negotiators are scrambling this month to strike a NAFTA deal, so they can bring Canada on board and meet deadlines to give Congress a required 90 days notice on any negotiated agreement. But Camuñez says “there are still a number of issues that could cause this agreement to go sideways,” including claims of unfair trading in farm goods.

While tomatoes might seem like unlikely ingredients in a cross-border dispute, they have a powerful constituency in Florida, which has been producing them since the late 1800s. While California is the leading producer of tomatoes for ketchup and other processing, Florida outranks it in annual production value of “fresh market tomatoes,” which fetch a higher price in the winter. In 2016, the value of the Florida tomato crop was $382 million, followed by the state’s strawberry crop at $364 million, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Florida is also a crucial swing state for anyone running for president, including Trump, who campaigned on revising the 24-year-old NAFTA pact to be more friendly to U.S. industry and farmers.

Following talks in Washington earlier this month, both U.S. and Mexican negotiators said they made progress in resolving disagreements over automobile tariffs and other issues. “I think we are going to get there with Mexico in a relatively short order,” Gregg Doud, the U.S. chief agriculture negotiator, said Tuesday to a sugar industry conference in Michigan.

But when Doud was asked about the provision sought by Florida and Georgia growers, he declined to comment, stating the negotiations are ongoing.

Overall, U.S. agriculture has benefited from NAFTA. From 1992 to 2016, U.S. agriculture exports to Canada and Mexico grew from $8.7 billion to $38 billion, according to the Congressional Research Service.

But not all U.S. farmers have benefited. In Florida, farm land devoted to tomatoes dropped from 45,200 acres in 2005 to 32,000 a decade later. Mexico now tops Florida in U.S. market share of strawberries, peppers and tomatoes, a sea change from the 1990s.

It's a good thing there are still some capable professionals in DC working on trade. If we had to rely on Agent Orange's knowledge of trade we would all starve.